Huggin the Curb: June S&P Futures

June S&P Futures

The S&P market traded in a narrow range in today's session. The 20 period daily ATR (average true range) which checks in at over 34 pts contracted on a one day measurement to a mere 2pts (open to close). Of other note is the fact that the June contract settled within a pitching wedge of the 100 day MA which has recently led to numerous linear moves. This all comes the day in front of the Fed meeting announcement. When I step back and address the structural nature of the recent pullback stemming from the highs established at 2807.25 on the 18th of this month it remains unclear to me as to whether to classify it as impulsive or non-impulsive. Either way I see a similar short term path that I currently contend has a higher probability of playing out. Should the contract fortify the 2727 area I believe the stage will be set for an follow through to roughly 2737-2742. From this approximated level I'd be looking for the market to get rejected. This next stage of the sequence should provide a lot of information needed to address any potential future price path. I'd look for a pullback to roughly 2719 for starters. If this area can't hold up look for a possible extended decline that I believe will target 2680. This scenario I have laid out is all contingent on the previous addressed trigger points. An extended hold above 2738 will alter my view. Please feel free to reach out to me to further discuss my suggested strategies to take advantage of future market moves.

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John Lunney

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